Thursday, September 27, 2012

The Pod is Back! Week Four Picks

After being locked out of the podcast all season (it was in the fine print of the ref deal), we are back for more suboptimal sports banter. This week, Spen and Kieran are joined by n00b Danny to discuss their credentials for becoming an NFL referee. Kieran introduces a new segment as he may or may not have sold his soul...

Friday, September 14, 2012

NFL Picks for Week Two

Greeting exalted readers. No podcast this week as I have continued to procrastinate purchasing a new wifi router that can handle the new, supposedly lighting-fast Comcast modem. My podcast co-host Kieran has expressed his disappointment with me, scolding me with some harsh words (or at least I think they were harsh, I couldn't really hear him over my crappy Skype connection). I give myself until week five to actually buy a new router. This will surely piss Kieran off (cue angry face).

I'm sticking to picking games this season without the line included. While this is the cowardly to pick NFL games, I'd like to avoid the wrath of my boss^9, Roger Goodell. He sent a nice email to everyone outlining the rules and regulations around wagering on games, so I am just going to avoid talking about the subject altogether (cue Kieran's lonely face). But fantasy football is still allowed; it makes the world go round after all

So lets start 'er off with some week two picks. Home teams are in CAPS.

BILLS over Chiefs

Both of these teams looked awful last week, especially the poor Bills whose quarterback was signed to a $59 million dollar contract last October and has proceeded to go 2-9 since that point. My favorite part about statistics is that there is a statistical argument for any point you want to make, for or against somebody. My other favorite part about statistics are when the numbers back one argument, you pick against them anyways. That's what I'm doing here.

BENGALS over Browns

When people are reporting your franchise is doomed (again) just one game after your 28-year old rookie quarterback makes his first start, you are in bad shape. Poor Cleveland.

Vikings over COLTS

While it would be cute for Andrew Luck to get his first NFL win in his first home game, it's not happening. I forsee headlines such as "Surprise Vikings off to first 2-0 start since 2009." I also forsee Skip Bayless debating whether the Vikings can hold off the Packers for the division crown, if Andrew Luck is a bust, and if the Colts made a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING mistake by drafting him. Simmer down Skip.

Saints over PANTHERS

Cam Newton and the Panthers, a sexy pick to go over 7.5 wins make the playoffs make those who wagered on it those who picked them to make the playoffs very nervous by falling to 0-2. The Saints pick up that "much needed win" in a game they don't play well in because "that's what good teams do."

Texans over JAGUARS

Catch the thrill, Jaguars fans, Blaine Gabbert finally made a highlight for something he actually did well! Didn't matter, as they ended up losing anyways... as they will this weekend.

DOLPHINS over Raiders

The mysterious power that prevents west coast teams from travelling east and playing well in an early game will strike again. The Dolphins win their home opener in front of a half-full stadium that is somehow deemed "sold out."

PATRIOTS over Cardinals

My analysis: Kevin Kolb is starting for the Cardinals. Patriots win.

Buccaneers over GIANTS

This isn't as much about the Bucs as it is about the Giants. A juggernaut in the playoffs, the Giants cease to impress in the regular season. While many see this as a bounce back game, and a game for which the Giants have had ten days to prepare, I expect a last second game winning field goal by Bucs.

Ravens over EAGLES

I outsmarted myself again thinking Michael Vick could revert back to his miraculous self. The Baltimore hype will reach unprecedented levels after the Ravens crush the Eagles and the Orioles firm their grasp on the AL East. An overlooked pick for the Super Bowl this season, the Ravens odds are sure to... will likely gain steam as a Super Bowl pick after week two.

Redskins over RAMS

In a slop-fest that the NFL Redzone channel will seldom show, much to the chagrin of people screaming "SHOW ME RG3!!!", the Redskins eek out a victory on a late field goal set up by the defense, no less.

SEAHAWKS over Cowboys

Suck it Dallas. The Rockies former draft pick, Russell Wilson will lead the Seahawks to glory in their new neon-inspired, Oregon Duck-like uniforms. Fact: Tony Romo is still haunted by that dropped field goal hold in the 2006 playoffs.

Jets over STEELERS

Tim Tebow Mark Sanchez takes advantage of a suspect Steelers secondary that even Tim Tebow managed to torch for 316 yards and two touchdowns. I see this game as a blowout either way.

CHARGERS over Titans

I was trying to come up with something to say about this game, when I realized the fact that I don't have much to say about it means it will likely be one of the most exciting games of the day. This is not statistically proven however.

49ERS over Lions

Ah yes, Sunday Night Football! This matchup pits the unstoppable force the Lions offense (I'll give them a mulligan for last week) against the immovable object, David Akers. The 49ers have to be thanking the schedule makers for giving them two straight opponents who made the playoffs last season. That way they can prove the "regression to the mean" statistics nerds wrong. I can picture Jim Harbaugh screaming at his team before the game, "All their stats are meaningless in the face of a 240-pound crazy Patrick Willis!"

Broncos over FALCONS

We've been on a Star Wars kick lately at my casa, and a popular theme in the movies is apprentice vs. master. Word has it that Matt Ryan has studied Peyton Manning's no huddle offense from afar, becoming a sort of no-huddle apprentice. It's been awhile since Broncos fans have seen a real quarterback under center. Not since Jake Plummer have Broncos fans seen a seasoned quarterback run an elaborate offense (as elaborate as the bootleg offense is...). Jay Cutler ran the throw-it-as-hard-as-you-can-to-Brandon-Marshall offense, Kyle Orton ran the stupid-dump-off-pass-offense, and Tim Tebow  ran the RUUUUNNNNNNNN!!!!! offense. Watching Manning orchestrate the no huddle while wearing a Broncos jersey was a sight for sore eyes. Obi Wan wins.

There you have it. Week two picks without the spread. Since picking without the spread is inherently easier, I will establish a winning percentage of 62.5% (equivalent to a 10-6 record) as the .500 benchmark.